By John McBeth
June 29, 2007
The Straits Times

JAKARTA - FOR those speculating once again about Golkar and the Indonesian Democratic Party - Struggle (PDI-P) joining forces to undermine President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's re-election chances in the 2009 elections, here's a word of advice: Don't hold your breath. We went through all this in 2004 when then-Golkar chairman Akbar Tanjung unwisely thought he could take ex-president Suharto's political machine, which has never known anything but governing, into opposition with defeated president and PDI-P leader Megawati Sukarnoputri.

Now, the media is having a similar field day over a recent meeting of a clutch of Golkar and PDI-P leaders in the North Sumatran capital of Medan, where the two parties are supporting the same candidate for the mayoralty of Indonesia's third-biggest city.

But that in itself is nothing new. Just look at the current gubernatorial race in Jakarta and numerous other examples of such unlikely marriages of convenience. Local elections for governors, mayors and district chiefs have never been a reliable barometer of the popularity of any political party, even if Golkar is doing better than most.

But the much-publicised event in Medan has created a lot of early chatter in the lead- up to 2009, most of it centred on whether Vice-President and Golkar chairman Jusuf Kalla will team up with Dr Yudhoyono again or whether he will feel emboldened enough to challenge him for the presidency at the head of Indonesia's largest party.

Mr Jusuf was not at the Medan gathering, which was attended by Ms Megawati's husband, Mr Taufik Kiemas, and media mogul Surya Paloh, the respective chairmen of the PDI-P and Golkar advisory boards, PDI-P secretary- general Pramono Anung and his counterpart Soemarsono, and parliamentary leaders Tjahjo Kumolo (PDI-P) and Priyo Budi Santoso (Golkar).

Mr Paloh described it as the beginning of a broader cooperation between the two parties in dealing with legislation and national issues, without actually spelling out its long-term significance. He also took the opportunity to indirectly criticise Mr Jusuf for his recent statements that democracy should not be seen as an end in itself, but as a means of achieving prosperity.

The Vice-President and House of Representatives Speaker Laksono Agung - a member of Golkar's powerful West Java chapter - both went out of their way to scotch rumours that this was a forerunner to a more formal political tie that could have ramifications for 2009.

Several senior Golkar politicians dismissed the proposition out of hand in interviews with The Straits Times. The key organiser, they pointed out, was deputy party chairman Burhanuddin Napitupulu, an ambitious North Sumatra legislator embittered over being overlooked for the public works portfolio in last month's Cabinet reshuffle.

The other Golkar participants appear to have mixed motives. Mr Paloh has never made any secret of his ambition to become party chairman, but the bearded Acehnese entrepreneur simply does not have the sort of alliances that would allow him to achieve that goal.

Mr Soemarsono is a retired general and a former staff member in Dr Yudhoyono's office when he served as Ms Megawati's political coordinating minister. But he owes his place in Golkar to the party's perceived need to continue the tradition of appeasing the military and is regarded as a political novice.

The adventurous Mr Santoso may be playing a much different game. An astute native of Dr Yudhoyono's East Java home town of Pacitan, he is believed to be trying to demonstrate to the party faithful that he is not cosying up to the President. It may be important to his future career.

For Mr Taufik and PDI-P, Golkar's overture no doubt presented a win-win situation. 'It works in their favour,' said one party veteran. 'They're in opposition and because we're sort of flirting with them, it begins to sow seeds of doubt about Golkar's future intentions.'

Is Mr Jusuf, in fact, playing a double game by seeming to condone the Medan get-together? His relationship with Dr Yudhoyono has never been quite as acrimonious as most people believe, but it will come under increasing pressure as the 2009 elections loom and the pair have to decide whether they need each other in a future coalition.

Golkar sources claim Mr Jusuf has decided to run in 2009, even though he and party supporters share the view that his heightened stature will probably not be enough for a candidate from Sulawesi to overcome the so-called Java bias. Dr Yudhoyono will be confident of the support of Javanese constituents, who make up a disproportionate 60 per cent of the national vote and can be relied on to choose style over the sort of substance demanded by an increasingly frustrated political and economic elite.

The only possible way for Mr Jusuf to contend with Java's influence would be to recruit Sultan Hamengkubuwono X of Yogjakarta as his running mate, something that has been widely rumoured. But most analysts feel that for all his popularity, the sultan would still not be enough to carry the day.

As for the President himself, he may well have reservations about keeping Mr Jusuf as his Vice-President, some stemming from deeply-held suspicions that he and chief welfare minister and party financier Aburizal Bakrie have been busy feathering their own business nests - and perhaps Golkar's war chest.

But it is also a fact that without them, Dr Yudhoyono's administration would have little to show for its years in power and might still be wrestling with its two biggest achievements - signing the historic 2005 Aceh peace deal and slashing oil subsidies, which has freed up a large chunk of cash for vote-getting poverty alleviation.

If some palace sources are claiming there is only a 30 per cent chance of Mr Jusuf getting the nod, Golkar sources believe the President is waiting for his Vice-President to make the first move and declare his intention.

This sort of 'will he, won't he' game could continue through 2008. Indeed, the field for the June 2009 first round of the presidential election is unlikely to take shape until after the April legislative elections that year, when parties can make their decisions based on their showing.

It also hinges on Mr Jusuf's hold on the party, always an issue for someone who owes the chairmanship to his government position. Remember, there is that simple compromise: If Dr Yudhoyono wins in 2009 without a Golkar vice-president, the party can still be assured of more Cabinet seats as compensation.

Observers still recall Mr Jusuf's duplicity last year in declaring he knew nothing about the appointment of a presidential delivery team, when in fact he was at the Cabinet meeting where it was initially approved.

Episodes such as this should tell analysts more about internal problems in Golkar than anything else.

Veterans like Mr Laksono are counting on Golkar getting significantly more than the 21 per cent of the vote it gained in 2004 parliamentary elections. The calculation? It would force Mr Jusuf into running a losing presidential race with Dr Yudhoyono that would put an end to his leadership of a party whose fortunes he has done little to foster.

In the end, for all the speculation Medan evoked, the possibility of a political marriage appeared to play second fiddle to public statements befitting the secular traditions of the country's two biggest parties, each occupying the same ideological space.

Mr Taufik and Mr Paloh have hailed the event as a joint re-commitment to pluralism, the Pancasila state ideology and the Constitution, in what seemed to be concern over the rising influence of sectarian parties and the proliferation of syariah bylaws - albeit in areas where Muslims have a clear majority.

They might also question the wisdom of their own members voting for those by-laws as a way of currying favour with local religious leaders. In a society beset by creeping Islamicisation, it is this sort of opportunism that may pose a greater political danger than the current display of smoke and mirrors.

GUESSING GAME

This sort of 'will he, won't he' game could continue through 2008.

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